Recovery from COVID-19 will be a very long haul

You may have heard about the report from Imperial College, on which the government’s current COVID-19 policy is based. You can download it from their website, and there’s also a summary there:…/…/

It’s long but well worth reading. I rather hope I’ve misunderstood it. But if not, my main takeaway is this:

The very restrictive measures introduced on 16 March 2020 (plus also possibly school and university closures) are likely to be in effect, for periods of many weeks, roughly two-thirds of the time on / one third off, until a vaccine is widely available. This means the next 18 months or possibly longer.

So any rescheduling of events is a gamble, with odds of a successful re-staging of about 2 to 1 against.

I can understand why the government is not making a big thing of this, focussing instead on what people need to do here and now. Because quite frankly, it’s very depressing. But anyone who needs to plan and prepare properly should read the report and make their decisions accordingly.

And if I’ve got it wrong, do please tell me.

It also really emphasises the need for everyone to be stringent about all the social distancing measures. The effectiveness of those directly affects the number of ICU admissions – and that figure is the trigger for the restrictions being put in place, and then (as they reduce) temporarily lifted.

I wish everybody the best physical and mental health possible in these turbulent times.